US Open: No. 3 Jessica Pegula survives rough start vs. Emma Navarro to set up clash with No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka

Jessica Pegula didn’t exactly play like the No. 3 player in the world on Tuesday, but she’s still alive at the US Open.

The top-seeded American in the field overcome an awful start in the quarterfinals to defeat No. 26 seed and countrywoman Emma Navarro 3-6, 6-4 6-3. Her reward will be a matchup with No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka on Thursday, in her third straight US Open semifinal.

She will have to overcome history to go further. Sabelenka ended both of those runs, with a straight-sets win in the 2024 final and a three-set thriller in last year’s semifinal.

Both Sabalenka and Pegula remain in contention for the WTA’s No. 1 ranking coming out of the tournament, though all of that goes up in smoke if No. 2 Elena Rybakina wins her quarterfinal match against Qinwen Zheng on Wednesday.

If Rybakina does lose, she still becomes No. 1 unless Pegula, Sabalenka or Coco Gauff win the title. Like Pegula, Sabalenka took a major step toward that goal on Tuesday with an intense three-set win over No. 6 seed Linda Noskova.

Pegula had to do plenty of work just to keep her hopes alive. Facing a fellow daughter of a billionaire family — the jokes are too easy to bother with — Pegula was inexplicably tight in the first set.

Her serve was particularly rough early on. She rarely got her first serve in, landing only 11-of-28 in her first three service games. Her second serve was easy to abuse when it actually landed, winning only 6 of 17 points on it while committing five double faults in those same three games. Navarro, who entered the match with an 0-4 record against Pegula, wasn’t at her best either, but she kept it together enough to cruise to a first set win.

Even baseline rallies, the area where Pegula is supposed to be one of the steadiest players on tour, weren’t going her way, with a noticeably low ball-striking angle resulting in countless balls landing in the net.

Pegula was aware of her issues. She bounced her racket against the court in frustration at one point and ESPN cameras caught her telling her coaches that she has never double-faulted to many times in her life. Even her own coach Mark Knowles told ESPN she was playing too passively between sets.

She got moderately better in the second set, but still had to dig deep to avoid a straight-sets loss. A late break allowed her to steal the set and stay alive.

Pegula’s main adjustment appeared to be ramping down her serve velocity and trusting her baseline game. It worked, even if she still had to respond to a break by Navarro that put her down 2-1 in the third set. She did so by winning the next four games, cruising to a win that took a surprising amount of fortitude.

It’s been a career season for Pegula, who leads the WTA in wins this year with 50, but it goes without saying that what she would like most of all is a Grand Slam title. Every other player in the top 6, from Sabalenka to Noskova, has won one of the four trophies all players covet.

With her biggest success coming on hard court and friendly crowds at Flushing Meadows, the US Open has always loomed as her best shot at breaking through. She’s two matches from accomplishing that, but the degree of diffficulty is already looking like it will be very high.